Sobre o Evento
PROPAGATIONCOMORBUSS is a stochastic agent model for community behaviour and the proliferation of diseases that is driven by the social contacts it produces. As an agent model, individual agents are modeled after persons in the studied community, each one having its social role (identity, household, job, routine) which defines an heterogeneous and realist community model. At the same time, each agent has its own biology, with individual disease progression following a stochastic compartmental model. Disease propagation rides on contacts in a range of social contexts (homes, schools, markets, hospitals, stores etc.) which are generated dynamically by the community model. Intervention measures can be directly modelled by changing the behaviour or biology of the agents, and their effectiveness in mitigation of the pandemic can be directly measured. In this presentation, we give an overview of the core concepts of the model and its advantages. We present recent results from the application of the model to investigate the safety of school reopening in different scenarios. We then follow up with a few of the new directions for the project.
*Texto informado pelo autor.
Apoiadores / Parceiros / Patrocinadores
Guilherme Tegoni Goedert
Guilherme Tegoni Goedert - is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie EJD fellow at Università di Roma "Tor Vergata", RWTH Aachen University e Cyprus Institute. BSc in Physics from Universidade de Brasília (UnB) and MSc in Computational Mathematics and Modeling from Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada (IMPA). Specialist in Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Scientific Computing. Interested in modeling and methods for the study of extreme events, in particular extreme fluctuations in turbulent flows and complex systems, and stochastic modeling in epidemiology.